歐冠｜2026-07-22（香港時間）｜資料僅供賽事研究參考，非投注建議
| 主客和 | 概率 | 香港賽馬會 | MT | Pinnacle | Polymarket | Kalshi | 1xbet | Bet365 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 費內巴切 | 和 | 扎布熱礦工 | 費內巴切 | 和 | 扎布熱礦工 | 費內巴切 | 和 | 扎布熱礦工 | 費內巴切 | 和 | 扎布熱礦工 | 費內巴切 | 和 | 扎布熱礦工 | 費內巴切 | 和 | 扎布熱礦工 | 費內巴切 | 和 | 扎布熱礦工 | 費內巴切 | 和 | 扎布熱礦工 | |
| 勝負 | 83.2% | 11.1% | 5.7% | 1.09-9.3% | 7.0-22.5% | 14.0-20.1% | 1.14-5.1% | 6.5-28.1% | 10.5-40.1% | 1.132-5.8% | 8.71-3.6% | 15.69-10.4% | 1.183-1.5% | 8.696-3.7% | 18.182+3.8% | 1.17-2.6% | — | 22.222+26.9% | 1.151-4.2% | 8.05-10.9% | 14.1-19.5% | 1.142-5.0% | 8.5-5.9% | 13.0-25.8% |
| 讓球 | 概率 | 香港賽馬會 | MT | Pinnacle | Polymarket | 1xbet | Bet365 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 費內巴切 | 扎布熱礦工 | 費內巴切 | 扎布熱礦工 | 費內巴切 | 扎布熱礦工 | 費內巴切 | 扎布熱礦工 | 費內巴切 | 扎布熱礦工 | 費內巴切 | 扎布熱礦工 | 費內巴切 | 扎布熱礦工 | |
| -3 | 30.2% | 69.8% | — | — | — | — | 3.13-5.4% | 1.356-5.4% | — | — | 2.78-16.0% | 1.34-6.5% | 3.3-0.2% | 1.325-7.6% |
| -2.75 | 37.4% | 62.6% | — | — | — | — | 2.54-5.0% | 1.518-5.0% | — | — | — | — | 2.675+0.1% | 1.45-9.2% |
| -2.5 | 41.9% | 58.1% | — | — | — | — | 2.2-7.9% | 1.676-2.6% | 2.469+3.4% | 1.681-2.3% | 2.128-10.9% | 1.684-2.1% | 2.35-1.6% | 1.575-8.5% |
| -2.25 | 48.7% | 51.3% | 1.97-4.1% | 1.83-6.1% | 2.01-2.1% | 1.83-6.1% | 1.971-4.0% | 1.87-4.0% | — | — | — | — | 1.925-6.3% | 1.875-3.8% |
| -2 | 55.6% | 44.4% | 1.85+2.9% | 1.95-13.4% | 1.75-2.7% | 2.09-7.2% | 1.709-5.0% | 2.14-5.0% | — | — | 1.71-4.9% | 2.07-8.1% | — | — |
| -1.75 | 61.2% | 38.8% | 1.67+2.1% | 2.18-15.3% | 1.59-2.8% | 2.33-9.5% | 1.556-4.8% | 2.45-4.8% | — | — | — | — | 1.675+2.4% | 2.15-16.5% |
| -1.5 | 64.9% | 35.1% | — | — | — | — | 1.448-6.0% | 2.73-4.2% | 1.55+0.6% | 2.817-1.2% | 1.44-6.5% | 2.47-13.4% | 1.55+0.6% | 2.375-16.7% |
| +1.5 | 98.7% | 1.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.013+0.0% | 80.0+0.0% | — | — | — | — |
| +2.5 | 99.7% | 0.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.003+0.0% | 400.0+0.0% | — | — | — | — |
| 入球大細 | 概率 | 香港賽馬會 | MT | Pinnacle | Polymarket | 1xbet | Bet365 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | |
| 0.5 | 97.0% | 3.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.031-0.0% | 32.787-0.0% | 1.009-2.2% | 22-32.9% | 1.015-1.6% | 12.0-63.4% |
| 1.5 | 86.5% | 13.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.156-0.0% | 7.407-0.0% | 1.084-6.2% | 5.45-26.4% | 1.14-1.4% | 5.75-22.4% |
| 2.5 | 67.2% | 32.8% | — | — | — | — | 1.389-6.7% | 2.93-3.8% | 1.504+1.0% | 2.985-2.0% | 1.37-8.0% | 2.68-12.0% | 1.444-3.0% | 2.625-13.8% |
| 2.75 | 64.1% | 35.9% | — | — | — | — | 1.476-5.3% | 2.64-5.3% | — | — | — | — | 1.525-2.2% | 2.425-13.0% |
| 3 | 59.4% | 40.6% | — | — | 1.6-5.0% | 2.28-7.3% | 1.595-5.3% | 2.33-5.3% | — | — | 1.58-6.2% | 2.18-11.4% | 1.675-0.6% | 2.15-12.6% |
| 3.25 | 52.2% | 47.8% | 1.74-9.2% | 1.97-5.8% | 1.82-5.0% | 2.0-4.4% | 1.833-4.4% | 2.0-4.4% | — | — | — | — | 1.85-3.5% | 1.95-6.7% |
| 3.5 | 45.0% | 55.0% | 1.95-12.2% | 1.75-3.8% | 2.03-8.6% | 1.76-3.3% | 2.03-8.6% | 1.769-2.8% | 2.299+3.5% | 1.77-2.7% | 2.024-8.9% | 1.755-3.5% | 2.1-5.4% | 1.7-6.6% |
| 3.75 | 41.0% | 59.0% | — | — | — | — | 2.31-5.4% | 1.602-5.4% | — | — | — | — | 2.375-2.7% | 1.55-8.5% |
| 4 | 34.0% | 66.0% | — | — | — | — | 2.77-5.8% | 1.427-5.8% | — | — | 2.62-10.9% | 1.41-6.9% | 2.85-3.1% | 1.4-7.6% |
| 4.5 | 26.0% | 74.0% | 3.15-18.1% | 1.3-3.8% | — | — | — | — | 3.846-0.0% | 1.351-0.0% | 3.125-18.8% | 1.28-5.3% | 3.45-10.3% | 1.3-3.8% |
| 5.5 | 13.0% | 87.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.692-0.0% | 1.149-0.0% | 5.35-30.5% | 1.088-5.3% | 6.25-18.8% | 1.12-2.6% |
目前，Kalshi 的「扎布熱礦工 勝」價格 22.222 相對市場共識概率 5.7% 有 +26.9% 的正向落差，列為本場訊號。
主客和價差反映目前賠率與市場共識概率之間的落差。可先看概率如何換算，再了解共識的形成與 EV 的計算方式。
市場共識概率＝Pinnacle與 Polymarket 收盤投注種類去水後的平均隱含概率（市場價格轉換，非 AI 模型）。 本頁隨投注種類更新，完賽後定稿並回填賽果。模型版本：consensus-v1。 香港賽馬會為香港唯一合法受規管之博彩營辦商。本站為賽事數據與市場資料整理，所列各家投注種類僅供市場比較與研究參考，不構成投注建議，亦不連往任何博彩網站。使用者須自行遵守所在地區之法律規範。未滿 18 歲不得投注，理性判斷、量力而為。