MLS｜2026-07-23（香港時間）｜資料僅供賽事研究參考，非投注建議
| 主客和 | 概率 | 香港賽馬會 | 熊貓 | MT | Pinnacle | Polymarket | Kalshi | Bet365 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 聖荷西地震 | 和 | 奧蘭多 | 聖荷西地震 | 和 | 奧蘭多 | 聖荷西地震 | 和 | 奧蘭多 | 聖荷西地震 | 和 | 奧蘭多 | 聖荷西地震 | 和 | 奧蘭多 | 聖荷西地震 | 和 | 奧蘭多 | 聖荷西地震 | 和 | 奧蘭多 | 聖荷西地震 | 和 | 奧蘭多 | |
| 勝負 | 61.7% | 19.0% | 19.3% | 1.43-11.7% | 4.55-13.6% | 4.6-11.3% | 1.53-5.6% | 4.7-10.8% | 4.6-11.3% | 1.49-8.0% | 4.47-15.1% | 4.78-7.8% | 1.562-3.6% | 4.89-7.2% | 4.74-8.6% | 1.6-1.2% | 5.405+2.6% | 5.405+4.3% | 1.575-2.8% | 5.405+2.6% | 5.405+4.3% | 1.571-3.0% | 4.5-14.6% | 5.0-3.6% |
| 讓球 | 概率 | 香港賽馬會 | 熊貓 | MT | Pinnacle | Polymarket | Bet365 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 聖荷西地震 | 奧蘭多 | 聖荷西地震 | 奧蘭多 | 聖荷西地震 | 奧蘭多 | 聖荷西地震 | 奧蘭多 | 聖荷西地震 | 奧蘭多 | 聖荷西地震 | 奧蘭多 | 聖荷西地震 | 奧蘭多 | |
| -2.5 | 22.0% | 78.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4.545-0.0% | 1.282-0.0% | 3.8-16.4% | 1.25-2.5% |
| -2 | 26.3% | 73.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64-4.3% | 1.299-4.3% | — | — | 3.3-13.2% | 1.325-2.3% |
| -1.75 | 33.6% | 66.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85-4.4% | 1.439-4.4% | — | — | 2.6-12.8% | 1.475-2.0% |
| -1.5 | 39.5% | 60.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.43-4.0% | 1.588-3.9% | 2.532+0.0% | 1.653-0.0% | 2.25-11.1% | 1.625-1.7% |
| -1.25 | 44.4% | 55.6% | — | — | — | — | 2.12-6.0% | 1.79-0.4% | 2.17-3.7% | 1.73-3.7% | — | — | 2.05-9.1% | 1.75-2.6% |
| -1 | 50.7% | 49.3% | 1.83-7.2% | 1.93-4.8% | 1.87-5.2% | 2.01-0.9% | 1.84-6.7% | 2.06+1.6% | 1.909-3.2% | 1.962-3.2% | — | — | 1.85-6.2% | 1.95-3.8% |
| -0.75 | 56.6% | 43.4% | — | — | — | — | 1.67-5.4% | 2.29-0.7% | 1.699-3.8% | 2.22-3.8% | — | — | 1.625-7.9% | 6.6 |
| -0.5 | 61.4% | 38.6% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.565-3.9% | 2.49-3.9% | — | — | 1.525-6.4% | 5.0 |
| -0.25 | 67.7% | 32.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.413-4.4% | 2.96-4.4% | — | — | 1.375-6.9% | 4.5 |
| 0 | 75.3% | 24.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.271-4.3% | 3.88-4.3% | — | — | 1.225-7.7% | 4.1+1.2% |
| +1.5 | 93.0% | 7.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.075-0.0% | 14.286-0.0% | — | — |
| +2.5 | 98.2% | 1.8% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.018+0.0% | 57.143+0.0% | — | — |
| 入球大細 | 概率 | 香港賽馬會 | 熊貓 | MT | Pinnacle | Polymarket | Bet365 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | |
| 0.5 | 97.8% | 2.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.023-0.0% | 44.444-0.0% | 1.01-1.3% | 26.0-41.5% |
| 1.5 | 87.5% | 12.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.104-3.3% | 7.13-11.2% | 1.13-1.1% | 8.696+8.3% | 1.1-3.7% | 7.0-12.8% |
| 2.5 | 71.1% | 28.9% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.348-4.2% | 3.24-6.2% | 1.399-0.6% | 3.509+1.6% | 1.363-3.1% | 3.1-10.3% |
| 3 | 63.5% | 36.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.508-4.3% | 2.62-4.3% | — | — | — | — |
| 3.25 | 56.2% | 43.8% | — | — | — | — | 1.67-6.1% | 2.26-1.1% | 1.704-4.2% | 2.19-4.2% | — | — | — | — |
| 3.5 | 50.5% | 49.5% | 1.75-11.7% | 1.95-3.4% | 1.91-3.6% | 1.95-3.4% | 1.9-4.1% | 1.98-1.9% | 1.909-3.7% | 1.943-3.8% | 1.98-0.1% | 2.02+0.0% | 1.875-5.4% | 1.925-4.7% |
| 3.75 | 45.2% | 54.8% | 1.94-12.2% | 1.76-3.6% | — | — | 2.14-3.2% | 1.75-4.2% | 2.12-4.1% | 1.752-4.1% | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | 38.8% | 61.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.47-4.2% | 1.565-4.2% | — | — | — | — |
| 4.5 | 31.3% | 68.7% | 2.68-16.1% | 1.4-3.8% | — | — | — | — | 3.01-5.8% | 1.392-4.4% | 3.226+1.0% | 1.449-0.5% | 3.0-6.1% | 1.363-6.4% |
| 5.5 | 17.2% | 82.8% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5.34-8.3% | 1.161-3.8% | 6.061+4.1% | 1.198-0.8% | 5.0-14.1% | 1.166-3.4% |
目前，Polymarket 的「細 1.5」價格 8.696 相對市場共識概率 12.5% 有 +8.3% 的正向落差，列為本場訊號。
讓球與入球大細不能只看投注種類數字，水位也會影響兩邊呈現的概率。理解 overround 與去水方式，有助於比較台灣運彩和國際盤的價格。
市場共識概率＝Pinnacle與 Polymarket 收盤投注種類去水後的平均隱含概率（市場價格轉換，非 AI 模型）。 本頁隨投注種類更新，完賽後定稿並回填賽果。模型版本：consensus-v1。 香港賽馬會為香港唯一合法受規管之博彩營辦商。本站為賽事數據與市場資料整理，所列各家投注種類僅供市場比較與研究參考，不構成投注建議，亦不連往任何博彩網站。使用者須自行遵守所在地區之法律規範。未滿 18 歲不得投注，理性判斷、量力而為。