MLS｜2026-07-23（香港時間）｜資料僅供賽事研究參考，非投注建議
| 主客和 | 概率 | 香港賽馬會 | 熊貓 | MT | Pinnacle | Polymarket | Kalshi | Bet365 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 辛辛那提 | 和 | 溫哥華白帽 | 辛辛那提 | 和 | 溫哥華白帽 | 辛辛那提 | 和 | 溫哥華白帽 | 辛辛那提 | 和 | 溫哥華白帽 | 辛辛那提 | 和 | 溫哥華白帽 | 辛辛那提 | 和 | 溫哥華白帽 | 辛辛那提 | 和 | 溫哥華白帽 | 辛辛那提 | 和 | 溫哥華白帽 | |
| 勝負 | 23.9% | 22.2% | 53.9% | 3.3-21.0% | 3.95-12.5% | 1.73-6.8% | 3.55-15.0% | 3.95-12.5% | 1.81-2.4% | 3.53-15.5% | 3.82-15.3% | 1.8-3.0% | 3.95-5.4% | 4.22-6.5% | 1.775-4.3% | 4.255+1.9% | 4.651+3.1% | 1.869+0.7% | 4.255+1.9% | 4.651+3.1% | 1.835-1.1% | 4.0-4.2% | 4.2-6.9% | 1.75-5.7% |
| 讓球 | 概率 | 香港賽馬會 | 熊貓 | MT | Pinnacle | Polymarket | Bet365 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 辛辛那提 | 溫哥華白帽 | 辛辛那提 | 溫哥華白帽 | 辛辛那提 | 溫哥華白帽 | 辛辛那提 | 溫哥華白帽 | 辛辛那提 | 溫哥華白帽 | 辛辛那提 | 溫哥華白帽 | 辛辛那提 | 溫哥華白帽 | |
| -2.5 | 3.6% | 96.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 28.169+0.0% | 1.037+0.0% | — | — |
| -1.5 | 10.5% | 89.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 9.524-0.0% | 1.117-0.0% | — | — |
| -0.25 | 27.2% | 72.8% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3.52-4.3% | 1.314-4.3% | — | — | 3.3-10.3% | 1.575+14.7% |
| 0 | 30.8% | 69.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3.1-4.4% | 1.383-4.4% | — | — | 2.85-12.1% | 1.4-3.2% |
| +0.25 | 39.4% | 60.6% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44-3.9% | 1.585-3.9% | — | — | 2.35-7.5% | 1.325-19.7% |
| +0.5 | 46.0% | 54.0% | — | — | — | — | 2.11-2.9% | 1.8-2.8% | 2.09-3.8% | 1.781-3.8% | — | — | 2.025-6.8% | 1.26-32.0% |
| +0.75 | 51.7% | 48.3% | 1.74-10.1% | 2.05-0.9% | 1.84-4.9% | 2.04-1.4% | 1.85-4.4% | 2.05-0.9% | 1.87-3.4% | 2.0-3.4% | — | — | 1.8-7.0% | 2.0-3.4% |
| +1 | 58.8% | 41.2% | — | — | — | — | 1.65-2.9% | 2.33-4.1% | 1.637-3.7% | 2.34-3.7% | — | — | 1.6-5.9% | 1.105-54.5% |
| +1.25 | 63.8% | 36.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.505-4.0% | 2.65-4.0% | — | — | 1.475-5.9% | 2.6-5.8% |
| +1.5 | 67.8% | 32.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.415-4.1% | 2.95-5.0% | 1.471-0.3% | 3.125+0.7% | 1.4-5.1% | 2.85-8.2% |
| +1.75 | 73.4% | 26.6% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.304-4.3% | 3.6-4.3% | — | — | 1.3-4.6% | 3.45-8.3% |
| +2.5 | 83.5% | 16.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.198+0.0% | 6.061+0.0% | 1.15-4.0% | 5.5-9.2% |
| 入球大細 | 概率 | 香港賽馬會 | 熊貓 | MT | Pinnacle | Polymarket | Bet365 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | |
| 0.5 | 97.4% | 2.6% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.027+0.0% | 38.462+0.0% | 1.012-1.4% | 23.0-40.2% |
| 1.5 | 86.4% | 13.6% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.119-3.3% | 6.51-11.6% | 1.143-1.2% | 8.0+8.7% | 1.115-3.6% | 6.4-13.1% |
| 2.5 | 68.7% | 31.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.402-3.7% | 2.97-7.1% | 1.439-1.1% | 3.279+2.6% | 1.4-3.8% | 2.875-10.1% |
| 3 | 60.2% | 39.8% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.588-4.4% | 2.4-4.4% | — | — | 1.575-5.2% | 2.35-6.4% |
| 3.25 | 53.5% | 46.5% | — | — | — | — | 1.83-2.2% | 2.05-4.6% | 1.794-4.1% | 2.06-4.1% | — | — | 1.775-5.1% | 2.025-5.7% |
| 3.5 | 48.3% | 51.7% | 1.89-8.7% | 1.81-6.4% | 2.04-1.4% | 1.82-5.9% | 2.05-1.0% | 1.83-5.4% | 2.0-3.4% | 1.855-4.1% | 2.062-0.4% | 1.942+0.4% | 2.0-3.4% | 1.8-7.0% |
| 3.75 | 42.9% | 57.1% | 2.13-8.7% | 1.63-6.9% | — | — | 2.33-0.1% | 1.63-6.9% | 2.24-4.0% | 1.68-4.0% | — | — | 2.25-3.6% | 1.625-7.1% |
| 4 | 36.4% | 63.6% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.63-4.3% | 1.505-4.3% | — | — | 2.6-5.4% | 1.475-6.2% |
| 4.5 | 29.3% | 70.7% | 2.92-14.6% | 1.34-5.2% | — | — | — | — | 3.17-7.2% | 1.36-3.8% | 3.509+2.7% | 1.399-1.0% | 3.3-3.4% | 1.325-6.3% |
| 5.5 | 15.9% | 84.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5.67-9.8% | 1.147-3.5% | 6.667+6.1% | 1.176-1.1% | 5.75-8.5% | 1.14-4.1% |
目前，Bet365 的「溫哥華白帽 +0.25」價格 1.575 相對市場共識概率 72.8% 有 +14.7% 的正向落差，列為本場訊號。
讓球與入球大細不能只看投注種類數字，水位也會影響兩邊呈現的概率。理解 overround 與去水方式，有助於比較台灣運彩和國際盤的價格。
市場共識概率＝Pinnacle與 Polymarket 收盤投注種類去水後的平均隱含概率（市場價格轉換，非 AI 模型）。 本頁隨投注種類更新，完賽後定稿並回填賽果。模型版本：consensus-v1。 香港賽馬會為香港唯一合法受規管之博彩營辦商。本站為賽事數據與市場資料整理，所列各家投注種類僅供市場比較與研究參考，不構成投注建議，亦不連往任何博彩網站。使用者須自行遵守所在地區之法律規範。未滿 18 歲不得投注，理性判斷、量力而為。