K聯賽｜2026-08-01（香港時間）｜資料僅供賽事研究參考，非投注建議
| 主客和 | 概率 | 熊貓 | MT | Pinnacle | Polymarket | 1xbet | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 江原 | 和 | 富川1995 | 江原 | 和 | 富川1995 | 江原 | 和 | 富川1995 | 江原 | 和 | 富川1995 | 江原 | 和 | 富川1995 | 江原 | 和 | 富川1995 | |
| 勝負 | 63.1% | 23.1% | 13.8% | 1.51-4.7% | 3.9-9.8% | 6.1-15.9% | 1.52-4.1% | 3.6-16.7% | 5.9-18.7% | 1.503-5.2% | 4.14-4.2% | 6.7-7.7% | 1.575-0.6% | 4.255-1.6% | 7.407+2.1% | 1.5-5.4% | 3.92-9.3% | 6.86-5.4% |
| 讓球 | 概率 | 熊貓 | MT | Pinnacle | Polymarket | 1xbet | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 江原 | 富川1995 | 江原 | 富川1995 | 江原 | 富川1995 | 江原 | 富川1995 | 江原 | 富川1995 | 江原 | 富川1995 | |
| -2.5 | 16.5% | 83.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6.061+0.0% | 1.198+0.0% | — | — |
| -2 | 21.4% | 78.6% | — | — | — | — | 4.45-4.6% | 1.214-4.6% | — | — | — | — |
| -1.75 | 30.1% | 69.9% | — | — | — | — | 3.17-4.7% | 1.362-4.7% | — | — | — | — |
| -1.5 | 36.5% | 63.5% | — | — | — | — | 2.58-5.8% | 1.518-3.6% | 2.778+1.4% | 1.562-0.8% | 2.46-10.2% | 1.444-8.3% |
| -1.25 | 42.8% | 57.2% | — | — | — | — | 2.24-4.1% | 1.676-4.1% | — | — | — | — |
| -1 | 50.7% | 49.3% | 1.97-0.2% | 1.91-5.8% | 2.04+3.4% | 1.86-8.2% | 1.901-3.7% | 1.952-3.7% | — | — | — | — |
| -0.75 | 58.3% | 41.7% | — | — | 1.75+2.0% | 2.17-9.5% | 1.645-4.1% | 2.3-4.1% | — | — | — | — |
| -0.5 | 63.8% | 36.2% | — | — | — | — | 1.5-4.3% | 2.64-4.3% | — | — | — | — |
| -0.25 | 71.7% | 28.3% | — | — | — | — | 1.329-4.8% | 3.36-4.8% | — | — | — | — |
| 0 | 81.7% | 18.3% | — | — | — | — | 1.169-4.5% | 5.23-4.5% | — | — | — | — |
| +1.5 | 95.0% | 5.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.053+0.0% | 20.0+0.0% | — | — |
| +2.5 | 94.0% | 6.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.064+0.0% | 16.667+0.0% | — | — |
| 入球大細 | 概率 | 熊貓 | MT | Pinnacle | Polymarket | 1xbet | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | |
| 0.5 | 91.0% | 9.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.099+0.0% | 11.111+0.0% | — | — |
| 1.5 | 69.3% | 30.7% | — | — | — | — | 1.373-4.9% | 3.06-5.9% | 1.439-0.3% | 3.279+0.8% | — | — |
| 1.75 | 64.8% | 35.2% | — | — | — | — | 1.469-4.7% | 2.71-4.7% | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | 59.0% | 41.0% | — | — | 1.72+1.5% | 2.19-10.3% | 1.617-4.5% | 2.33-4.5% | — | — | — | — |
| 2.25 | 50.4% | 49.6% | 1.95-1.6% | 1.91-5.3% | 2.0+0.9% | 1.88-6.8% | 1.901-4.1% | 1.935-4.1% | — | — | — | — |
| 2.5 | 43.6% | 56.4% | — | — | — | — | 2.16-5.9% | 1.709-3.6% | 2.326+1.4% | 1.754-1.0% | 2.13-7.2% | 1.69-4.7% |
| 2.75 | 37.5% | 62.5% | — | — | — | — | 2.54-4.7% | 1.526-4.7% | — | — | — | — |
| 3.5 | 22.5% | 77.5% | — | — | — | — | 4.05-9.0% | 1.238-4.0% | 4.651+4.4% | 1.274-1.2% | — | — |
| 4.5 | 8.5% | 91.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11.765+0.0% | 1.093+0.0% | — | — |
| 5.5 | 5.0% | 95.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.0+0.0% | 1.053+0.0% | — | — |
目前，Polymarket 的「大 3.5」價格 4.651 相對市場共識概率 22.5% 有 +4.4% 的正向落差，列為本場訊號。
自 Betlead 首次記錄到目前的 Pinnacle 去水概率變化（香港時間），虛線為開賽時刻；開賽後不再更新。
讓球與入球大細不能只看投注種類數字，水位也會影響兩邊呈現的概率。理解 overround 與去水方式，有助於比較台灣運彩和國際盤的價格。
市場共識概率＝Pinnacle與 Polymarket 收盤投注種類去水後的平均隱含概率（市場價格轉換，非 AI 模型）。 本頁隨投注種類更新，完賽後定稿並回填賽果。模型版本：consensus-v1。 香港賽馬會為香港唯一合法受規管之博彩營辦商。本站為賽事數據與市場資料整理，所列各家投注種類僅供市場比較與研究參考，不構成投注建議，亦不連往任何博彩網站。使用者須自行遵守所在地區之法律規範。未滿 18 歲不得投注，理性判斷、量力而為。