西甲｜2026-08-16（香港時間）｜資料僅供賽事研究參考，非投注建議
目前，三個市場都沒到訊號門檻。
| 主客和 | 概率 | 香港賽馬會 | 熊貓 | MT | Pinnacle | Polymarket | 1xbet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 阿拉維斯 | 和 | 赫塔費 | 阿拉維斯 | 和 | 赫塔費 | 阿拉維斯 | 和 | 赫塔費 | 阿拉維斯 | 和 | 赫塔費 | 阿拉維斯 | 和 | 赫塔費 | 阿拉維斯 | 和 | 赫塔費 | 阿拉維斯 | 和 | 赫塔費 | |
| 勝負 | 40.8% | 34.4% | 24.8% | 2.24-8.6% | 2.55-12.2% | 3.4-15.8% | 2.31-5.8% | 2.82-2.9% | 3.35-17.0% | 2.36-3.7% | 2.72-6.3% | 3.21-20.5% | 2.37-3.3% | 2.83-2.5% | 3.89-3.7% | 2.469+0.7% | 2.899-0.1% | 4.082+1.1% | 2.459+0.3% | 2.906+0.1% | 3.78-6.4% |
| 讓球 | 概率 | 香港賽馬會 | 熊貓 | MT | Pinnacle | Polymarket | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 阿拉維斯 | 赫塔費 | 阿拉維斯 | 赫塔費 | 阿拉維斯 | 赫塔費 | 阿拉維斯 | 赫塔費 | 阿拉維斯 | 赫塔費 | 阿拉維斯 | 赫塔費 | |
| -2.5 | 5.0% | 95.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.0+0.0% | 1.053+0.0% |
| -1.5 | 15.0% | 85.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6.667-0.0% | 1.176-0.0% |
| -1.25 | 19.6% | 80.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4.92-3.3% | 1.203-3.3% | — | — |
| -1 | 22.6% | 77.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4.28-3.4% | 1.248-3.4% | — | — |
| -0.75 | 33.0% | 67.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.94-3.1% | 1.446-3.1% | — | — |
| -0.5 | 41.0% | 59.0% | — | — | — | — | 2.36-3.2% | 1.63-3.9% | 2.37-2.8% | 1.649-2.8% | — | — |
| -0.25 | 49.5% | 50.5% | 1.97-2.4% | 1.8-9.2% | 1.99-1.4% | 1.89-4.6% | 2.03+0.6% | 1.87-5.6% | 1.971-2.4% | 1.935-2.4% | — | — |
| 0 | 62.3% | 37.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.559-2.8% | 2.58-2.8% | — | — |
| +0.25 | 70.0% | 30.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.385-3.1% | 3.23-3.1% | — | — |
| +0.5 | 74.9% | 25.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.289-3.4% | 3.85-3.4% | — | — |
| +0.75 | 81.7% | 18.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.183-3.3% | 5.29-3.3% | — | — |
| +1.5 | 93.0% | 7.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.075-0.0% | 14.286-0.0% |
| +2.5 | 97.9% | 2.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.021+0.0% | 48.78+0.0% |
| 入球大細 | 概率 | 香港賽馬會 | 熊貓 | MT | Pinnacle | Polymarket | 1xbet | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | |
| 0.5 | 84.5% | 15.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.183-0.0% | 6.452-0.0% | — | — |
| 0.75 | 80.5% | 19.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.178-5.2% | 4.86-5.2% | — | — | — | — |
| 1 | 77.2% | 22.8% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.23-5.0% | 4.17-5.0% | — | — | — | — |
| 1.25 | 65.4% | 34.6% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.469-3.9% | 2.78-3.9% | — | — | — | — |
| 1.5 | 56.6% | 43.4% | 1.71-3.3% | 2.01-12.7% | — | — | 1.73-2.2% | 2.17-5.7% | 1.709-3.3% | 2.23-3.1% | 1.77+0.1% | 2.299-0.1% | 1.753-0.9% | 2.248-2.3% |
| 1.75 | 49.5% | 50.5% | 1.95-3.4% | 1.75-11.7% | 1.95-3.4% | 1.91-3.6% | 1.98-1.9% | 1.9-4.1% | 1.962-2.8% | 1.926-2.8% | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | 39.6% | 60.4% | — | — | — | — | 2.38-5.8% | 1.6-3.3% | 2.44-3.4% | 1.599-3.4% | — | — | — | — |
| 2.25 | 33.2% | 66.8% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.89-3.9% | 1.439-3.9% | — | — | — | — |
| 2.5 | 29.1% | 70.9% | 3.2-6.9% | 1.29-8.5% | — | — | — | — | 3.32-3.4% | 1.337-5.2% | 3.39-1.3% | 1.418+0.5% | — | — |
| 2.75 | 22.6% | 77.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4.2-5.0% | 1.227-5.0% | — | — | — | — |
| 3.5 | 13.0% | 87.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.692-0.0% | 1.149-0.0% | — | — |
| 4.5 | 4.5% | 95.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.222-0.0% | 1.047-0.0% | — | — |
| 5.5 | 2.1% | 97.9% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 48.78+0.0% | 1.021+0.0% | — | — |
本場目前各市場價格與共識概率相當，沒到訊號門檻。
自 Betlead 首次記錄到目前的 Pinnacle 去水概率變化（香港時間），虛線為開賽時刻；開賽後不再更新。
這場的價格與市場共識差距未達門檻，因此沒有標示價差訊號。可從共識的形成、收盤價值與誤差評估，了解系統如何檢視長期表現。
市場共識概率＝Pinnacle與 Polymarket 收盤投注種類去水後的平均隱含概率（市場價格轉換，非 AI 模型）。 本頁隨投注種類更新，完賽後定稿並回填賽果。模型版本：consensus-v1。 香港賽馬會為香港唯一合法受規管之博彩營辦商。本站為賽事數據與市場資料整理，所列各家投注種類僅供市場比較與研究參考，不構成投注建議，亦不連往任何博彩網站。使用者須自行遵守所在地區之法律規範。未滿 18 歲不得投注，理性判斷、量力而為。