德甲｜2026-08-29（香港時間）｜資料僅供賽事研究參考，非投注建議
| 主客和 | 概率 | 香港賽馬會 | 熊貓 | MT | Pinnacle | Polymarket | 1xbet | Bet365 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 萊比錫紅牛 | 和 | 門興格拉德巴赫 | 萊比錫紅牛 | 和 | 門興格拉德巴赫 | 萊比錫紅牛 | 和 | 門興格拉德巴赫 | 萊比錫紅牛 | 和 | 門興格拉德巴赫 | 萊比錫紅牛 | 和 | 門興格拉德巴赫 | 萊比錫紅牛 | 和 | 門興格拉德巴赫 | 萊比錫紅牛 | 和 | 門興格拉德巴赫 | 萊比錫紅牛 | 和 | 門興格拉德巴赫 | |
| 勝負 | 61.2% | 20.8% | 18.0% | 1.38-15.6% | 4.4-8.4% | 5.4-2.8% | 1.55-5.2% | 4.5-6.3% | 4.65-16.3% | 1.52-7.0% | 4.23-11.9% | 4.85-12.7% | 1.592-2.6% | 4.58-4.6% | 5.24-5.7% | 1.626-0.5% | 4.878+1.6% | 5.714+2.8% | 1.626-0.5% | 4.62-3.8% | 5.43-2.3% | 1.571-3.9% | 4.5-6.3% | 5.25-5.5% |
| 讓球 | 概率 | 香港賽馬會 | 熊貓 | MT | Pinnacle | Polymarket | 1xbet | Bet365 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 萊比錫紅牛 | 門興格拉德巴赫 | 萊比錫紅牛 | 門興格拉德巴赫 | 萊比錫紅牛 | 門興格拉德巴赫 | 萊比錫紅牛 | 門興格拉德巴赫 | 萊比錫紅牛 | 門興格拉德巴赫 | 萊比錫紅牛 | 門興格拉德巴赫 | 萊比錫紅牛 | 門興格拉德巴赫 | 萊比錫紅牛 | 門興格拉德巴赫 | |
| -2.5 | 20.0% | 80.0% | — | — | — | — | 1.94-61.2% | 1.9 | — | — | 5.0+0.0% | 1.25+0.0% | — | — | 4.25-15.0% | 1.21-3.2% |
| -2 | 24.8% | 75.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3.9-3.5% | 1.283-3.5% | — | — | — | — | 3.55-12.1% | 1.275-4.1% |
| -1.75 | 32.2% | 67.8% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3.0-3.4% | 1.424-3.4% | — | — | — | — | 2.75-11.5% | 1.425-3.4% |
| -1.5 | 38.2% | 61.8% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.53-3.5% | 1.571-2.8% | 2.632+0.4% | 1.613-0.2% | 2.548-2.8% | 1.606-0.7% | 2.375-9.4% | 1.55-4.1% |
| -1.25 | 43.3% | 56.7% | — | — | — | — | 2.19-5.2% | 1.74-1.3% | 2.24-3.1% | 1.709-3.1% | — | — | — | — | 2.15-7.0% | 1.675-5.0% |
| -1 | 49.5% | 50.5% | 1.77-12.3% | 2.0+0.9% | 1.93-4.4% | 1.95-1.6% | 1.93-4.4% | 1.97-0.6% | 1.971-2.4% | 1.935-2.4% | — | — | — | — | 1.925-4.6% | 1.925-2.9% |
| -0.75 | 56.0% | 44.0% | — | — | — | — | 1.7-4.8% | 2.25-1.0% | 1.73-3.2% | 2.2-3.2% | — | — | — | — | 1.675-6.2% | 2.15-5.4% |
| -0.5 | 61.1% | 38.9% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.588-3.0% | 2.49-3.0% | — | — | — | — | 1.55-5.4% | 2.375-7.5% |
| -0.25 | 67.9% | 32.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.42-3.5% | 3.01-3.5% | — | — | — | — | 1.4-4.9% | 2.85-8.6% |
| 0 | 76.7% | 23.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.26-3.4% | 4.14-3.4% | — | — | — | — | 1.24-4.9% | 3.9-9.0% |
| +1.5 | 93.5% | 6.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.07+0.0% | 15.385+0.0% | — | — | — | — |
| +2.5 | 98.4% | 1.6% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.016+0.0% | 64.516+0.0% | — | — | — | — |
| 入球大細 | 概率 | 香港賽馬會 | 熊貓 | MT | Pinnacle | Polymarket | 1xbet | Bet365 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | |
| 0.5 | 96.5% | 3.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.036+0.0% | 28.986+0.0% | — | — | 1.025-1.0% | 17.0-41.3% |
| 1.5 | 84.5% | 15.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.183-0.0% | 6.452-0.0% | — | — | 1.142-3.5% | 5.5-14.8% |
| 2.25 | 70.5% | 29.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.353-4.6% | 3.23-4.6% | — | — | — | — | 1.325-6.6% | 3.3-2.6% |
| 2.5 | 64.1% | 35.9% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.498-4.0% | 2.63-5.6% | 1.55-0.6% | 2.817+1.1% | — | — | 1.5-3.8% | 2.625-5.8% |
| 2.75 | 59.5% | 40.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.61-4.1% | 2.37-4.1% | — | — | — | — | 1.575-6.2% | 2.35-4.9% |
| 3 | 54.1% | 45.9% | — | — | — | — | 1.73-6.4% | 2.17-0.4% | 1.781-3.6% | 2.1-3.6% | — | — | — | — | 1.725-6.7% | 2.075-4.8% |
| 3.25 | 47.6% | 52.4% | 1.94-7.6% | 1.76-7.8% | 1.99-5.2% | 1.87-2.1% | 1.98-5.7% | 1.9-0.5% | 2.04-2.8% | 1.855-2.8% | — | — | — | — | 2.0-4.7% | 1.85-3.1% |
| 3.5 | 42.5% | 57.5% | 2.19-6.8% | 1.6-8.1% | — | — | 2.21-6.0% | 1.7-2.3% | 2.26-3.9% | 1.676-3.7% | 2.353+0.1% | 1.739-0.1% | 2.281-3.0% | 1.734-0.4% | 2.2-6.4% | 1.666-4.3% |
| 3.75 | 36.9% | 63.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.6-4.0% | 1.521-4.0% | — | — | — | — | 2.425-10.5% | 1.525-3.8% |
| 4 | 30.0% | 70.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18-4.5% | 1.364-4.5% | — | — | — | — | 3.0-9.9% | 1.375-3.8% |
| 4.25 | 27.2% | 72.8% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51-4.6% | 1.311-4.6% | — | — | — | — | 3.45-6.2% | 1.3-5.4% |
| 4.5 | 24.0% | 76.0% | 3.65-12.4% | 1.23-6.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4.167+0.0% | 1.316+0.0% | — | — | 3.75-10.0% | 1.285-2.3% |
| 5.5 | 11.0% | 89.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 9.091+0.0% | 1.124+0.0% | — | — | 6.5-28.5% | 1.111-1.1% |
目前，Polymarket 的「門興格拉德巴赫 勝」價格 5.714 相對市場共識概率 18.0% 有 +2.8% 的正向落差，列為本場訊號。
自 Betlead 首次記錄到目前的 Pinnacle 去水概率變化（香港時間），虛線為開賽時刻；開賽後不再更新。
主客和價差反映目前賠率與市場共識概率之間的落差。可先看概率如何換算，再了解共識的形成與 EV 的計算方式。
市場共識概率＝Pinnacle與 Polymarket 收盤投注種類去水後的平均隱含概率（市場價格轉換，非 AI 模型）。 本頁隨投注種類更新，完賽後定稿並回填賽果。模型版本：consensus-v1。 香港賽馬會為香港唯一合法受規管之博彩營辦商。本站為賽事數據與市場資料整理，所列各家投注種類僅供市場比較與研究參考，不構成投注建議，亦不連往任何博彩網站。使用者須自行遵守所在地區之法律規範。未滿 18 歲不得投注，理性判斷、量力而為。