義甲｜2026-08-30（香港時間）｜資料僅供賽事研究參考，非投注建議
| 主客和 | 概率 | 香港賽馬會 | 熊貓 | MT | Pinnacle | Polymarket | 1xbet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 蒙扎 | 和 | 烏迪內斯 | 蒙扎 | 和 | 烏迪內斯 | 蒙扎 | 和 | 烏迪內斯 | 蒙扎 | 和 | 烏迪內斯 | 蒙扎 | 和 | 烏迪內斯 | 蒙扎 | 和 | 烏迪內斯 | 蒙扎 | 和 | 烏迪內斯 | |
| 勝負 | 29.8% | 30.5% | 39.8% | 3.05-9.2% | 2.97-9.5% | 2.13-15.3% | 2.98-11.3% | 3.35+2.0% | 2.37-5.7% | 2.07-38.4% | 6.1 | 2.1-16.5% | 3.24-3.5% | 3.2-2.5% | 2.43-3.3% | 3.39+0.9% | 3.279-0.1% | 2.532+0.7% | 3.285-2.2% | 3.285+0.1% | 2.459-2.2% |
| 讓球 | 概率 | 香港賽馬會 | 熊貓 | MT | Pinnacle | Polymarket | 1xbet | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 蒙扎 | 烏迪內斯 | 蒙扎 | 烏迪內斯 | 蒙扎 | 烏迪內斯 | 蒙扎 | 烏迪內斯 | 蒙扎 | 烏迪內斯 | 蒙扎 | 烏迪內斯 | 蒙扎 | 烏迪內斯 | |
| -2.5 | 3.3% | 96.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 30.769+0.0% | 1.034+0.0% | — | — |
| -1.5 | 11.5% | 88.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 8.696+0.0% | 1.13+0.0% | 7.2-17.2% | 1.043-7.7% |
| -0.75 | 23.2% | 76.8% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16-3.4% | 1.258-3.4% | — | — | — | — |
| -0.5 | 30.1% | 69.9% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21-3.5% | 1.38-3.5% | — | — | — | — |
| -0.25 | 35.3% | 64.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.75-3.0% | 1.498-3.0% | — | — | — | — |
| 0 | 42.8% | 57.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.27-2.8% | 1.699-2.8% | — | — | — | — |
| +0.25 | 52.9% | 47.1% | 1.85-2.1% | 1.91-10.1% | 1.83-3.1% | 2.07-2.6% | 1.83-3.1% | 2.07-2.6% | 1.84-2.6% | 2.07-2.6% | — | — | — | — |
| +0.5 | 60.0% | 40.0% | — | — | — | — | 1.62-2.7% | 2.38-4.9% | 1.617-2.9% | 2.43-2.9% | — | — | — | — |
| +0.75 | 67.3% | 32.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.441-3.0% | 2.97-3.0% | — | — | — | — |
| +1 | 76.6% | 23.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.262-3.4% | 4.12-3.4% | — | — | 1.21-7.4% | 3.84-10.0% |
| +1.25 | 79.3% | 20.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.219-3.4% | 4.66-3.4% | — | — | — | — |
| +1.5 | 83.5% | 16.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.198+0.0% | 6.061+0.0% | 1.122-6.3% | 4.85-20.0% |
| +2.5 | 94.3% | 5.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.06+0.0% | 17.699+0.0% | 1.01-4.7% | 11-37.8% |
| 入球大細 | 概率 | 香港賽馬會 | 熊貓 | MT | Pinnacle | Polymarket | 1xbet | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | |
| 0.5 | 90.0% | 10.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.111-0.0% | 10.0-0.0% | 1.024-7.8% | 7.8-22.0% |
| 1.25 | 75.9% | 24.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.265-4.0% | 3.99-4.0% | — | — | — | — |
| 1.5 | 68.4% | 31.6% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.408-3.8% | 3.02-4.4% | 1.46-0.2% | 3.175+0.5% | 1.37-6.4% | 2.82-10.8% |
| 1.75 | 63.6% | 36.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.518-3.5% | 2.65-3.5% | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | 57.0% | 43.0% | — | — | — | — | 1.72-1.9% | 2.19-5.9% | 1.694-3.4% | 2.25-3.4% | — | — | 1.65-5.9% | 2.14-8.1% |
| 2.25 | 48.3% | 51.7% | 1.87-9.7% | 1.83-5.4% | 2.02-2.5% | 1.86-3.8% | 2.02-2.5% | 1.86-3.8% | 2.01-2.9% | 1.877-2.9% | — | — | — | — |
| 2.5 | 42.0% | 58.0% | 2.15-9.8% | 1.62-6.0% | — | — | 2.29-3.9% | 1.65-4.2% | 2.31-3.1% | 1.667-3.2% | 2.381-0.1% | 1.724+0.1% | 2.326-2.4% | 1.708-0.9% |
| 2.75 | 35.5% | 64.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72-3.5% | 1.495-3.5% | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | 27.5% | 72.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49-3.9% | 1.326-3.9% | — | — | 3.35-7.8% | 1.29-6.5% |
| 3.25 | 24.6% | 75.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3.9-4.0% | 1.274-4.0% | — | — | — | — |
| 3.5 | 21.0% | 79.0% | 3.9-18.1% | 1.2-5.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4.762+0.0% | 1.266+0.0% | 4.1-13.9% | 1.189-6.1% |
| 4.5 | 9.0% | 91.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11.111+0.0% | 1.099+0.0% | 8.4-24.4% | 1.014-7.7% |
| 5.5 | 3.0% | 97.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 32.787-0.0% | 1.031-0.0% | 17-48.2% | 1.02-1.1% |
目前，熊貓 的「和」價格 3.35 相對市場共識概率 30.5% 有 +2.0% 的正向落差，列為本場訊號。
自 Betlead 首次記錄到目前的 Pinnacle 去水概率變化（香港時間），虛線為開賽時刻；開賽後不再更新。
主客和價差反映目前賠率與市場共識概率之間的落差。可先看概率如何換算，再了解共識的形成與 EV 的計算方式。
市場共識概率＝Pinnacle與 Polymarket 收盤投注種類去水後的平均隱含概率（市場價格轉換，非 AI 模型）。 本頁隨投注種類更新，完賽後定稿並回填賽果。模型版本：consensus-v1。 香港賽馬會為香港唯一合法受規管之博彩營辦商。本站為賽事數據與市場資料整理，所列各家投注種類僅供市場比較與研究參考，不構成投注建議，亦不連往任何博彩網站。使用者須自行遵守所在地區之法律規範。未滿 18 歲不得投注，理性判斷、量力而為。