義甲｜2026-08-31（香港時間）｜資料僅供賽事研究參考，非投注建議
| 主客和 | 概率 | 香港賽馬會 | 熊貓 | MT | Pinnacle | Polymarket | 1xbet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 拉齊歐 | 和 | 熱那亞 | 拉齊歐 | 和 | 熱那亞 | 拉齊歐 | 和 | 熱那亞 | 拉齊歐 | 和 | 熱那亞 | 拉齊歐 | 和 | 熱那亞 | 拉齊歐 | 和 | 熱那亞 | 拉齊歐 | 和 | 熱那亞 | |
| 勝負 | 40.6% | 32.6% | 26.8% | 2.05-16.7% | 2.88-6.1% | 3.35-10.3% | 2.09-15.1% | 3.25+5.9% | 3.7-0.9% | 1.48-39.9% | 7.5 | 3.2-14.3% | 2.4-2.5% | 2.99-2.5% | 3.61-3.3% | 2.469+0.3% | 3.077+0.3% | 3.774+1.1% | 2.435-1.1% | 3.025-1.4% | 3.64-2.5% |
| 讓球 | 概率 | 香港賽馬會 | 熊貓 | MT | Pinnacle | Polymarket | 1xbet | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 拉齊歐 | 熱那亞 | 拉齊歐 | 熱那亞 | 拉齊歐 | 熱那亞 | 拉齊歐 | 熱那亞 | 拉齊歐 | 熱那亞 | 拉齊歐 | 熱那亞 | 拉齊歐 | 熱那亞 | |
| -2.5 | 5.5% | 94.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.182-0.0% | 1.058-0.0% | 11.5-36.8% | 1.01-4.6% |
| -1.5 | 16.5% | 83.5% | — | — | — | — | 1.94-68.0% | 1.9 | — | — | 6.061+0.0% | 1.198+0.0% | 4.7-22.4% | 1.129-5.7% |
| -1.25 | 20.5% | 79.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4.73-3.0% | 1.221-3.0% | — | — | — | — |
| -1 | 23.4% | 76.6% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15-2.9% | 1.267-2.9% | — | — | 3.74-12.5% | 1.22-6.5% |
| -0.75 | 33.0% | 67.0% | — | — | — | — | 2.92-3.6% | 1.46-2.2% | 2.95-2.6% | 1.455-2.6% | — | — | — | — |
| -0.5 | 40.6% | 59.4% | — | — | 2.09-15.1% | 1.81+7.5% | 2.38-3.4% | 1.66-1.4% | 2.4-2.5% | 1.641-2.5% | — | — | — | — |
| -0.25 | 48.5% | 51.5% | 1.9-7.9% | 1.92-1.1% | — | — | 2.0-3.0% | 1.94-0.1% | 2.02-2.1% | 1.901-2.1% | — | — | — | — |
| 0 | 60.2% | 39.8% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.617-2.6% | 2.45-2.6% | — | — | — | — |
| +0.25 | 67.9% | 32.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.435-2.6% | 3.03-2.6% | — | — | — | — |
| +0.5 | 72.9% | 27.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.33-3.0% | 3.58-3.0% | — | — | — | — |
| +0.75 | 79.7% | 20.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.218-2.9% | 4.79-2.9% | — | — | — | — |
| +1.5 | 91.5% | 8.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.093+0.0% | 11.765+0.0% | 1.028-5.9% | 7.9-32.8% |
| +2.5 | 97.8% | 2.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.022-0.0% | 45.455-0.0% | — | — |
| 入球大細 | 概率 | 香港賽馬會 | 熊貓 | MT | Pinnacle | Polymarket | 1xbet | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | |
| 0.5 | 87.5% | 12.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.143+0.0% | 8.0+0.0% | 1.069-6.5% | 5.9-26.2% |
| 1 | 82.2% | 17.8% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.175-3.4% | 5.43-3.4% | — | — | 1.128-7.3% | 4.75-15.5% |
| 1.25 | 71.5% | 28.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.35-3.4% | 3.39-3.4% | — | — | — | — |
| 1.5 | 63.5% | 36.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.529-3.0% | 2.65-3.2% | 1.575-0.1% | 2.74+0.1% | 1.582+0.4% | 2.609-4.7% |
| 1.75 | 57.7% | 42.3% | — | — | — | — | 1.66-4.2% | 2.35-0.6% | 1.68-3.1% | 2.29-3.1% | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | 49.5% | 50.5% | — | — | 1.85-8.4% | 2.03+2.4% | 1.98-1.9% | 1.94-2.1% | 1.971-2.4% | 1.935-2.4% | — | — | 1.89-6.4% | 1.84-7.2% |
| 2.25 | 41.7% | 58.3% | 2.07-13.6% | 1.67-2.7% | — | — | 2.33-2.8% | 1.67-2.7% | 2.32-3.2% | 1.662-3.2% | — | — | — | — |
| 2.5 | 36.3% | 63.7% | 2.27-17.7% | 1.56-0.6% | — | — | 2.63-4.6% | 1.53-2.5% | 2.69-2.4% | 1.515-3.4% | 2.74-0.6% | 1.575+0.4% | 2.61-5.3% | 1.51-3.8% |
| 2.75 | 29.7% | 70.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25-3.5% | 1.373-3.5% | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | 21.9% | 78.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4.41-3.5% | 1.235-3.5% | — | — | 4.05-11.4% | 1.21-5.5% |
| 3.5 | 17.5% | 82.5% | 4.3-24.8% | 1.16-4.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5.714-0.0% | 1.212-0.0% | 4.85-15.1% | 1.138-6.1% |
| 4.5 | 6.5% | 93.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15.385+0.0% | 1.07+0.0% | 9.9-35.6% | 1.004-6.1% |
| 5.5 | 2.2% | 97.8% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 46.512+0.0% | 1.022+0.0% | 21-54.8% | 1.01-1.2% |
熊貓 的「和」價格 3.25 相對市場共識概率 32.6% 有 +5.9% 的正向落差，列為本場訊號。
自 Betlead 首次記錄到目前的 Pinnacle 去水概率變化（香港時間），虛線為開賽時刻；開賽後不再更新。
主客和價差反映目前賠率與市場共識概率之間的落差。可先看概率如何換算，再了解共識的形成與 EV 的計算方式。
市場共識概率＝Pinnacle與 Polymarket 收盤投注種類去水後的平均隱含概率（市場價格轉換，非 AI 模型）。 本頁隨投注種類更新，完賽後定稿並回填賽果。模型版本：consensus-v1。 香港賽馬會為香港唯一合法受規管之博彩營辦商。本站為賽事數據與市場資料整理，所列各家投注種類僅供市場比較與研究參考，不構成投注建議，亦不連往任何博彩網站。使用者須自行遵守所在地區之法律規範。未滿 18 歲不得投注，理性判斷、量力而為。