義甲｜2026-08-31（香港時間）｜資料僅供賽事研究參考，非投注建議
| 主客和 | 概率 | 香港賽馬會 | 熊貓 | Pinnacle | Polymarket | 1xbet | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 拿坡里 | 和 | 科莫 | 拿坡里 | 和 | 科莫 | 拿坡里 | 和 | 科莫 | 拿坡里 | 和 | 科莫 | 拿坡里 | 和 | 科莫 | 拿坡里 | 和 | 科莫 | |
| 勝負 | 37.3% | 31.4% | 31.3% | 2.27-15.3% | 2.9-9.0% | 2.88-9.8% | 2.46-8.2% | 3.35+5.1% | 2.89-9.5% | 2.61-2.6% | 3.1-2.7% | 3.11-2.6% | 2.667-0.5% | 3.175-0.4% | 3.175-0.6% | 2.659-0.8% | 3.085-3.2% | 3.17-0.7% |
| 讓球 | 概率 | 香港賽馬會 | 熊貓 | Pinnacle | Polymarket | 1xbet | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 拿坡里 | 科莫 | 拿坡里 | 科莫 | 拿坡里 | 科莫 | 拿坡里 | 科莫 | 拿坡里 | 科莫 | 拿坡里 | 科莫 | |
| -2.5 | 5.5% | 94.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.349+0.0% | 1.058+0.0% | — | — |
| -1.5 | 15.5% | 84.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 6.452-0.0% | 1.183-0.0% | 5.25-18.7% | 1.101-7.0% |
| -1 | 20.9% | 79.1% | — | — | — | — | 4.64-3.0% | 1.227-3.0% | — | — | 4.3-10.1% | 1.171-7.4% |
| -0.75 | 30.1% | 69.9% | — | — | — | — | 3.22-3.0% | 1.388-3.0% | — | — | — | — |
| -0.5 | 37.4% | 62.6% | — | — | — | — | 2.6-2.7% | 1.556-2.7% | — | — | — | — |
| -0.25 | 44.3% | 55.7% | 2.08-7.8% | 1.76-2.0% | — | — | 2.2-2.5% | 1.752-2.5% | — | — | — | — |
| 0 | 54.4% | 45.6% | — | — | 1.79-2.6% | 2.12-3.4% | 1.8-2.0% | 2.15-2.0% | — | — | — | — |
| +0.25 | 62.9% | 37.1% | — | — | — | — | 1.552-2.4% | 2.63-2.4% | — | — | — | — |
| +0.5 | 68.6% | 31.4% | — | — | — | — | 1.42-2.6% | 3.1-2.6% | — | — | — | — |
| +0.75 | 75.6% | 24.4% | — | — | — | — | 1.283-3.0% | 3.97-3.0% | — | — | — | — |
| +1 | 84.1% | 15.9% | — | — | — | — | 1.156-2.8% | 6.12-2.8% | — | — | 1.098-7.6% | 5.7-9.4% |
| +1.5 | 88.5% | 11.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.13+0.0% | 8.696+0.0% | 1.053-6.8% | 6.7-22.9% |
| +2.5 | 96.7% | 3.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.034-0.0% | 30.303-0.0% | — | — |
| 入球大細 | 概率 | 香港賽馬會 | 熊貓 | Pinnacle | Polymarket | 1xbet | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | 大 | 細 | |
| 0.5 | 89.5% | 10.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.117-0.0% | 9.524-0.0% | 1.039-7.0% | 7-26.5% |
| 1.25 | 75.2% | 24.8% | — | — | — | — | 1.283-3.5% | 3.89-3.5% | — | — | — | — |
| 1.5 | 68.0% | 32.0% | — | — | — | — | 1.429-2.8% | 2.97-5.0% | 1.46-0.7% | 3.175+1.6% | 1.38-6.1% | 2.77-11.4% |
| 1.75 | 62.7% | 37.3% | — | — | — | — | 1.546-3.0% | 2.6-3.0% | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | 56.0% | 44.0% | — | — | — | — | 1.735-2.8% | 2.21-2.8% | — | — | 1.68-5.9% | 2.09-8.1% |
| 2.25 | 47.3% | 52.7% | 1.87-11.6% | 1.83-3.5% | 2.06-2.6% | 1.82-4.0% | 2.07-2.2% | 1.855-2.2% | — | — | — | — |
| 2.5 | 41.2% | 58.8% | 2.15-11.4% | 1.62-4.8% | — | — | 2.37-2.3% | 1.645-3.3% | 2.41-0.6% | 1.709+0.4% | 2.387-1.6% | 1.677-1.4% |
| 2.75 | 34.6% | 65.4% | — | — | — | — | 2.8-3.1% | 1.481-3.1% | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | 26.6% | 73.4% | — | — | — | — | 3.63-3.5% | 1.314-3.5% | — | — | 3.38-10.2% | 1.285-5.7% |
| 3.25 | 23.8% | 76.2% | — | — | — | — | 4.05-3.5% | 1.267-3.5% | — | — | — | — |
| 3.5 | 20.5% | 79.5% | 3.8-22.1% | 1.21-3.8% | — | — | — | — | 4.878+0.0% | 1.258+0.0% | 4.1-15.9% | 1.188-5.6% |
| 4.5 | 8.5% | 91.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11.765+0.0% | 1.093+0.0% | 8.5-27.7% | 1.013-7.3% |
| 5.5 | 3.2% | 96.8% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 31.746+0.0% | 1.033+0.0% | 17-46.4% | 1.015-1.7% |
熊貓 的「和」價格 3.35 相對市場共識概率 31.4% 有 +5.1% 的正向落差，列為本場訊號。
自 Betlead 首次記錄到目前的 Pinnacle 去水概率變化（香港時間），虛線為開賽時刻；開賽後不再更新。
主客和價差反映目前賠率與市場共識概率之間的落差。可先看概率如何換算，再了解共識的形成與 EV 的計算方式。
市場共識概率＝Pinnacle與 Polymarket 收盤投注種類去水後的平均隱含概率（市場價格轉換，非 AI 模型）。 本頁隨投注種類更新，完賽後定稿並回填賽果。模型版本：consensus-v1。 香港賽馬會為香港唯一合法受規管之博彩營辦商。本站為賽事數據與市場資料整理，所列各家投注種類僅供市場比較與研究參考，不構成投注建議，亦不連往任何博彩網站。使用者須自行遵守所在地區之法律規範。未滿 18 歲不得投注，理性判斷、量力而為。