西甲｜2026-07-18（台灣時間）｜資料僅供賽事研究參考，非投注建議
| 獨贏 | 機率 | 平博 | Polymarket | 1xbet | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 弗魯米嫩塞 | 和局 | 巴拉甘蒂諾 | 弗魯米嫩塞 | 和局 | 巴拉甘蒂諾 | 弗魯米嫩塞 | 和局 | 巴拉甘蒂諾 | 弗魯米嫩塞 | 和局 | 巴拉甘蒂諾 | |
| 勝負 | 50.9% | 27.9% | 21.2% | 1.893-3.6% | 3.5-2.5% | 4.55-3.4% | 1.942-1.1% | 3.509-2.2% | 4.651-1.3% | 1.893-3.6% | 3.475-3.2% | 4.425-6.1% |
| 讓分 | 機率 | 平博 | Polymarket | 1xbet | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 弗魯米嫩塞 | 巴拉甘蒂諾 | 弗魯米嫩塞 | 巴拉甘蒂諾 | 弗魯米嫩塞 | 巴拉甘蒂諾 | 弗魯米嫩塞 | 巴拉甘蒂諾 | |
| -2.5 | 10.5% | 89.5% | — | — | 9.524-0.0% | 1.117-0.0% | 7.1-25.5% | 1.037-7.2% |
| -1.5 | 26.3% | 73.7% | 3.56-6.4% | 1.322-2.6% | 3.922+3.1% | 1.342-1.1% | 3.28-13.8% | 1.26-7.1% |
| -1.25 | 30.7% | 69.3% | 3.14-3.6% | 1.391-3.6% | — | — | — | — |
| -1 | 35.5% | 64.5% | 2.72-3.3% | 1.5-3.3% | — | — | 2.6-7.6% | 1.46-5.9% |
| -0.75 | 44.5% | 55.5% | 2.17-3.4% | 1.741-3.4% | — | — | — | — |
| -0.5 | 51.5% | 48.5% | 1.893-2.5% | 2.01-2.5% | — | — | — | — |
| -0.25 | 59.5% | 40.5% | 1.625-3.3% | 2.39-3.3% | — | — | — | — |
| 0 | 70.7% | 29.3% | 1.368-3.3% | 3.3-3.3% | — | — | — | — |
| +0.25 | 75.2% | 24.8% | 1.282-3.6% | 3.89-3.6% | — | — | — | — |
| +0.5 | 78.5% | 21.5% | 1.229-3.6% | 4.48-3.6% | — | — | — | — |
| +1.5 | 93.0% | 7.0% | — | — | 1.075-0.0% | 14.286-0.0% | 1.02-5.1% | 8.7-39.1% |
| +2.5 | 98.2% | 1.8% | — | — | 1.018+0.0% | 57.143+0.0% | — | — |
| 大小分 | 機率 | 平博 | Polymarket | 1xbet | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 大 | 小 | 大 | 小 | 大 | 小 | 大 | 小 | |
| 0.5 | 92.0% | 8.0% | — | — | 1.087+0.0% | 12.5+0.0% | 1.009-7.2% | 8.7-30.4% |
| 1.5 | 72.1% | 27.9% | 1.339-3.5% | 3.39-5.4% | 1.379-0.6% | 3.636+1.5% | 1.28-7.7% | 3.125-12.8% |
| 1.75 | 67.9% | 32.1% | 1.42-3.6% | 3.0-3.6% | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | 62.5% | 37.5% | 1.543-3.6% | 2.57-3.6% | — | — | 1.49-6.9% | 2.38-10.7% |
| 2.25 | 53.4% | 46.6% | 1.813-3.1% | 2.08-3.1% | — | — | — | — |
| 2.5 | 46.5% | 53.5% | 2.07-3.7% | 1.806-3.5% | 2.151+0.1% | 1.869-0.1% | 2.067-3.8% | 1.792-4.2% |
| 2.75 | 40.5% | 59.5% | 2.38-3.7% | 1.617-3.7% | — | — | — | — |
| 3.5 | 25.3% | 74.7% | 3.68-6.9% | 1.299-3.0% | 4.082+3.3% | 1.325-1.0% | 3.44-13.0% | 1.23-8.1% |
| 4.5 | 11.6% | 88.4% | 7.64-11.7% | 1.102-2.5% | 9.524+10.0% | 1.117-1.2% | 6.9-20.3% | 1.041-7.9% |
| 5.5 | 3.9% | 96.1% | — | — | 25.316-0.0% | 1.041-0.0% | 13.5-46.7% | 1.025-1.5% |
目前，Polymarket 的「大 4.5」價格 9.524 相對市場共識勝率 11.6% 有 +10.0% 的正向落差，列為本場建議。
市場共識勝率＝平博與 Polymarket 收盤盤口去水後的平均隱含機率（市場價格轉換，非 AI 模型）。 本頁隨盤口更新，完賽後定稿並回填賽果。模型版本：consensus-v1。 台灣運動彩券為依法發行之合法彩券；境外盤口僅作市場資料比較。未滿 18 歲不得投注，理性判斷、量力而為。