落磯 vs 國民|市場共識勝率與盤口比較

MLB|2026-07-21(台灣時間)|資料僅供賽事研究參考,非投注建議

落磯3:6國民
進行中・8局下

市場共識勝率

45.3%54.7%
落磯國民

價差訊號(目前)

落磯 +1.5市場價格 1.848(1xbet)共識勝率 55.2%落差 +1.9%

目前盤口明細

獨贏機率台灣運彩熊貓平博PolymarketKalshi1xbet
落磯國民落磯國民落磯國民落磯國民落磯國民落磯國民落磯國民
勝負45.3%54.7%1.95-11.6%1.55-15.3%2.05-7.1%1.72-6.0%2.17-1.6%1.787-2.3%2.198-0.4%1.835+0.3%2.198-0.4%1.835+0.3%2.157-2.2%1.796-1.8%
讓分機率台灣運彩熊貓平博Polymarket1xbet
落磯國民落磯國民落磯國民落磯國民落磯國民落磯國民
-1.531.7%68.3%3.02-4.2%1.403-4.2%2.89-8.3%1.37-6.5%
-136.5%63.5%2.64-3.6%1.518-3.6%2.51-8.4%1.49-5.4%
+150.0%50.0%1.943-2.8%1.943-2.8%1.9-5.0%1.86-7.0%
+1.555.2%44.8%1.66-8.4%1.84-17.5%1.73-4.6%2.08-6.7%1.781-1.8%2.16-3.1%1.802-0.6%2.247+0.8%1.848+1.9%2.087-6.4%
+260.1%39.9%1.613-3.1%2.43-3.1%1.64-1.4%2.2-12.2%
+2.563.6%36.4%1.518-3.5%2.65-3.5%1.55-1.5%2.36-14.0%
+368.9%31.1%1.391-4.2%3.08-4.2%1.44-0.8%2.62-18.5%
大小分機率台灣運彩熊貓平博Polymarket1xbet
10.562.3%37.7%1.541-3.9%2.55-3.9%
1158.9%41.1%1.641-3.4%2.35-3.4%1.6-5.8%2.22-8.7%
11.553.7%46.3%1.66-10.8%1.84-14.8%1.794-3.6%2.1-2.8%1.869+0.4%2.151-0.4%1.75-6.0%2.01-7.0%
1250.7%49.3%1.917-2.8%1.971-2.8%1.87-5.2%1.89-6.8%
12.547.0%53.0%2.01-5.6%1.78-5.6%2.04-4.2%1.84-2.4%2.151+1.0%1.869-0.9%2.063-3.1%1.866-1.0%
1342.6%57.4%2.27-3.3%1.685-3.3%2.18-7.1%1.65-5.3%
13.539.1%60.9%2.46-3.9%1.578-3.9%2.36-7.8%1.55-5.6%

數據回顧

目前,1xbet 的「落磯 +1.5」價格 1.848 相對市場共識勝率 55.2% 有 +1.9% 的正向落差,列為本場訊號。

看懂這場數據的關鍵

市場共識勝率=平博與 Polymarket 收盤盤口去水後的平均隱含機率(市場價格轉換,非 AI 模型)。 本頁隨盤口更新,完賽後定稿並回填賽果。模型版本:consensus-v1。 台灣運動彩券為依法發行之合法彩券;境外盤口僅作市場資料比較。未滿 18 歲不得投注,理性判斷、量力而為。

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