歐冠｜2026-07-22（台灣時間）｜資料僅供賽事研究參考，非投注建議
| 獨贏 | 機率 | MT | 平博 | Polymarket | Kalshi | 1xbet | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 費內巴切 | 和局 | 扎布熱礦工 | 費內巴切 | 和局 | 扎布熱礦工 | 費內巴切 | 和局 | 扎布熱礦工 | 費內巴切 | 和局 | 扎布熱礦工 | 費內巴切 | 和局 | 扎布熱礦工 | 費內巴切 | 和局 | 扎布熱礦工 | |
| 勝負 | 81.0% | 12.5% | 6.5% | 1.16-6.1% | 5.7-28.5% | 9.0-41.5% | 1.178-4.6% | 6.95-12.8% | 12.57-18.3% | 1.227-0.7% | 8.696+9.1% | 18.182+18.2% | 1.212-1.9% | — | 18.182+18.2% | 1.182-4.3% | 6.8-14.7% | 13.5-12.2% |
| 讓分 | 機率 | MT | 平博 | Polymarket | 1xbet | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 費內巴切 | 扎布熱礦工 | 費內巴切 | 扎布熱礦工 | 費內巴切 | 扎布熱礦工 | 費內巴切 | 扎布熱礦工 | 費內巴切 | 扎布熱礦工 | |
| -2.75 | 33.1% | 66.9% | — | — | 2.85-5.8% | 1.408-5.8% | — | — | — | — |
| -2.5 | 38.4% | 61.6% | — | — | 2.41-7.5% | 1.559-3.9% | 2.667+2.4% | 1.6-1.4% | 2.21-15.2% | 1.53-5.7% |
| -2.25 | 44.0% | 56.0% | 2.17-4.5% | 1.67-6.5% | 2.15-5.4% | 1.69-5.4% | — | — | — | — |
| -2 | 50.2% | 49.8% | 1.92-3.6% | 1.9-5.4% | 1.901-4.6% | 1.917-4.6% | — | — | 1.81-9.1% | 1.83-8.9% |
| -1.75 | 56.2% | 43.8% | 1.66-6.7% | 2.19-4.0% | 1.685-5.3% | 2.16-5.3% | — | — | — | — |
| -1.5 | 60.8% | 39.2% | — | — | 1.552-5.7% | 2.43-4.7% | 1.653+0.4% | 2.532-0.7% | 1.55-5.8% | 2.36-7.4% |
| -1.25 | 67.6% | 32.4% | — | — | 1.392-5.8% | 2.91-5.8% | — | — | — | — |
| +1.5 | 98.4% | 1.6% | — | — | — | — | 1.016+0.0% | 64.516+0.0% | — | — |
| +2.5 | 99.6% | 0.4% | — | — | — | — | 1.004+0.0% | 285.714+0.0% | — | — |
| 大小分 | 機率 | MT | 平博 | Polymarket | 1xbet | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 大 | 小 | 大 | 小 | 大 | 小 | 大 | 小 | 大 | 小 | |
| 0.5 | 96.6% | 3.4% | — | — | — | — | 1.035+0.0% | 29.851+0.0% | 1.009-2.5% | 19.5-34.7% |
| 1.5 | 86.5% | 13.5% | — | — | — | — | 1.156-0.0% | 7.407-0.0% | 1.094-5.4% | 5.25-29.1% |
| 2.5 | 67.4% | 32.6% | — | — | 1.407-5.2% | 2.82-7.9% | 1.471-0.9% | 3.125+2.0% | 1.4-5.7% | 2.57-16.1% |
| 2.75 | 62.9% | 37.1% | — | — | 1.498-5.8% | 2.54-5.8% | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | 57.9% | 42.1% | 1.65-4.5% | 2.17-8.6% | 1.629-5.7% | 2.24-5.7% | — | — | 1.62-6.2% | 2.11-11.2% |
| 3.25 | 50.9% | 49.1% | 1.91-2.9% | 1.89-7.1% | 1.87-4.9% | 1.935-4.9% | — | — | — | — |
| 3.5 | 45.2% | 54.8% | 2.06-7.0% | 1.7-6.8% | 2.08-6.1% | 1.725-5.4% | 2.222+0.4% | 1.818-0.3% | 2.08-6.1% | 1.72-5.7% |
| 3.75 | 39.6% | 60.4% | — | — | 2.38-5.7% | 1.562-5.7% | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | 32.5% | 67.5% | — | — | 2.89-6.1% | 1.391-6.1% | — | — | 2.73-11.3% | 1.38-6.8% |
| 4.5 | 25.0% | 75.0% | — | — | — | — | 4.0-0.0% | 1.333-0.0% | 3.24-19.0% | 1.26-5.5% |
| 5.5 | 13.0% | 87.0% | — | — | — | — | 7.692-0.0% | 1.149-0.0% | 5.55-27.9% | 1.08-6.0% |
目前，Kalshi 的「扎布熱礦工 勝」價格 18.182 相對市場共識勝率 6.5% 有 +18.2% 的正向落差，列為本場訊號。
獨贏價差反映目前賠率與市場共識勝率之間的落差。可先看機率如何換算，再了解共識的形成與 EV 的計算方式。
市場共識勝率＝平博與 Polymarket 收盤盤口去水後的平均隱含機率（市場價格轉換，非 AI 模型）。 本頁隨盤口更新，完賽後定稿並回填賽果。模型版本：consensus-v1。 台灣運動彩券為依法發行之合法彩券；境外盤口僅作市場資料比較。未滿 18 歲不得投注，理性判斷、量力而為。