MLS｜2026-07-23（台灣時間）｜資料僅供賽事研究參考，非投注建議
| 獨贏 | 機率 | 熊貓 | MT | 平博 | Polymarket | Kalshi | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 辛辛那提 | 和局 | 溫哥華白帽 | 辛辛那提 | 和局 | 溫哥華白帽 | 辛辛那提 | 和局 | 溫哥華白帽 | 辛辛那提 | 和局 | 溫哥華白帽 | 辛辛那提 | 和局 | 溫哥華白帽 | 辛辛那提 | 和局 | 溫哥華白帽 | |
| 勝負 | 24.3% | 22.1% | 53.6% | 3.55-13.6% | 3.95-12.9% | 1.81-2.9% | 3.5-14.9% | 3.85-15.1% | 1.8-3.5% | 3.95-3.9% | 4.22-6.9% | 1.775-4.8% | 4.082-0.7% | 4.651+2.6% | 1.869+0.2% | 4.167+1.4% | 4.651+2.6% | 1.835-1.6% |
| 讓分 | 機率 | 熊貓 | MT | 平博 | Polymarket | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 辛辛那提 | 溫哥華白帽 | 辛辛那提 | 溫哥華白帽 | 辛辛那提 | 溫哥華白帽 | 辛辛那提 | 溫哥華白帽 | 辛辛那提 | 溫哥華白帽 | |
| -2.5 | 3.5% | 96.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 28.571-0.0% | 1.036-0.0% |
| -1.5 | 10.5% | 89.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 9.524-0.0% | 1.117-0.0% |
| -0.25 | 27.2% | 72.8% | — | — | — | — | 3.5-4.7% | 1.31-4.7% | — | — |
| 0 | 30.9% | 69.1% | — | — | — | — | 3.08-4.7% | 1.379-4.7% | — | — |
| +0.25 | 39.4% | 60.6% | — | — | — | — | 2.43-4.3% | 1.578-4.3% | — | — |
| +0.5 | 46.0% | 54.0% | — | — | 2.11-2.8% | 1.8-2.9% | 2.08-4.2% | 1.775-4.2% | — | — |
| +0.75 | 51.7% | 48.3% | 1.85-4.4% | 2.03-1.9% | 1.85-4.4% | 2.05-0.9% | 1.862-3.8% | 1.99-3.8% | — | — |
| +1 | 58.9% | 41.1% | — | — | — | — | 1.629-4.1% | 2.33-4.1% | — | — |
| +1.25 | 63.8% | 36.2% | — | — | — | — | 1.5-4.3% | 2.64-4.3% | — | — |
| +1.5 | 67.5% | 32.5% | — | — | — | — | 1.41-4.8% | 2.94-4.6% | 1.481+0.0% | 3.077-0.1% |
| +1.75 | 73.4% | 26.6% | — | — | — | — | 1.299-4.7% | 3.58-4.7% | — | — |
| +2.5 | 83.5% | 16.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.198+0.0% | 6.061+0.0% |
| 大小分 | 機率 | 熊貓 | MT | 平博 | Polymarket | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 大 | 小 | 大 | 小 | 大 | 小 | 大 | 小 | 大 | 小 | |
| 0.5 | 97.1% | 2.9% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.03+0.0% | 34.483+0.0% |
| 1.5 | 86.6% | 13.4% | — | — | — | — | 1.117-3.3% | 6.41-14.0% | 1.136-1.6% | 8.333+11.8% |
| 2.5 | 68.2% | 31.8% | — | — | — | — | 1.397-4.8% | 2.95-6.1% | 1.46-0.5% | 3.175+1.0% |
| 3 | 60.1% | 39.9% | — | — | — | — | 1.585-4.7% | 2.39-4.7% | — | — |
| 3.25 | 53.4% | 46.6% | — | — | 1.84-1.7% | 2.04-5.0% | 1.787-4.5% | 2.05-4.5% | — | — |
| 3.5 | 48.1% | 51.9% | 2.04-1.9% | 1.82-5.5% | 2.05-1.5% | 1.83-5.0% | 1.99-4.3% | 1.847-4.1% | 2.083+0.1% | 1.923-0.1% |
| 3.75 | 42.8% | 57.2% | — | — | — | — | 2.23-4.5% | 1.671-4.5% | — | — |
| 4 | 36.5% | 63.5% | — | — | — | — | 2.61-4.7% | 1.5-4.7% | — | — |
| 4.5 | 29.0% | 71.0% | — | — | — | — | 3.15-8.5% | 1.356-3.8% | 3.571+3.7% | 1.389-1.4% |
| 5.5 | 15.7% | 84.3% | — | — | — | — | 5.59-12.0% | 1.144-3.6% | 6.897+8.6% | 1.17-1.4% |
目前，Polymarket 的「小 1.5」價格 8.333 相對市場共識勝率 13.4% 有 +11.8% 的正向落差，列為本場訊號。
讓分與大小分不能只看盤口數字，水位也會影響兩邊呈現的機率。理解 overround 與去水方式，有助於比較台灣運彩和國際盤的價格。
市場共識勝率＝平博與 Polymarket 收盤盤口去水後的平均隱含機率（市場價格轉換，非 AI 模型）。 本頁隨盤口更新，完賽後定稿並回填賽果。模型版本：consensus-v1。 台灣運動彩券為依法發行之合法彩券；境外盤口僅作市場資料比較。未滿 18 歲不得投注，理性判斷、量力而為。