英超｜2026-09-06（台灣時間）｜資料僅供賽事研究參考，非投注建議
| 獨贏 | 機率 | 台灣運彩 | 熊貓 | MT | 平博 | Polymarket | 1xbet | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 兵工廠 | 和局 | 切爾西 | 兵工廠 | 和局 | 切爾西 | 兵工廠 | 和局 | 切爾西 | 兵工廠 | 和局 | 切爾西 | 兵工廠 | 和局 | 切爾西 | 兵工廠 | 和局 | 切爾西 | 兵工廠 | 和局 | 切爾西 | |
| 勝負 | 57.0% | 24.5% | 18.5% | 1.55-11.7% | 3.25-20.4% | 3.95-26.8% | 1.66-5.4% | 4.0-2.1% | 4.3-20.3% | 1.32-24.8% | 8.8 | 4.05-25.0% | 1.699-3.2% | 3.92-4.0% | 5.17-4.2% | 1.739-0.9% | 4.082-0.0% | 5.405+0.2% | 1.767+0.7% | 3.9-4.5% | 5.18-4.0% |
| 讓分 | 機率 | 熊貓 | MT | 平博 | Polymarket | 1xbet | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 兵工廠 | 切爾西 | 兵工廠 | 切爾西 | 兵工廠 | 切爾西 | 兵工廠 | 切爾西 | 兵工廠 | 切爾西 | 兵工廠 | 切爾西 | |
| -2.5 | 15.5% | 84.5% | — | — | 2.04-68.4% | 1.8 | — | — | 6.452-0.0% | 1.183-0.0% | 4.85-24.9% | 1.114-5.9% |
| -1.75 | 27.8% | 72.2% | — | — | — | — | 3.48-3.4% | 1.337-3.4% | — | — | — | — |
| -1.5 | 33.2% | 66.8% | — | — | — | — | 2.85-5.4% | 1.459-2.5% | 3.077+2.1% | 1.481-1.0% | 2.864-5.0% | 1.501+0.3% |
| -1.25 | 38.3% | 61.7% | — | — | — | — | 2.53-3.2% | 1.568-3.2% | — | — | — | — |
| -1 | 44.0% | 56.0% | — | — | 2.2-3.2% | 1.73-3.2% | 2.2-3.2% | 1.73-3.2% | — | — | 2.17-4.5% | 1.69-5.4% |
| -0.75 | 51.4% | 48.6% | 1.89-2.9% | 1.99-3.3% | 1.9-2.4% | 2.0-2.8% | 1.901-2.3% | 2.01-2.3% | — | — | — | — |
| -0.5 | 57.2% | 42.8% | — | — | 1.7-2.8% | 2.25-3.6% | 1.694-3.2% | 2.26-3.2% | — | — | — | — |
| -0.25 | 65.0% | 35.0% | — | — | — | — | 1.49-3.1% | 2.77-3.1% | — | — | — | — |
| 0 | 75.3% | 24.7% | — | — | — | — | 1.282-3.5% | 3.91-3.5% | — | — | — | — |
| +0.25 | 78.6% | 21.4% | — | — | — | — | 1.229-3.4% | 4.52-3.4% | — | — | — | — |
| +1.5 | 93.5% | 6.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.07+0.0% | 15.385+0.0% | 1.002-6.3% | 9.3-39.5% |
| +2.5 | 97.9% | 2.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.021+0.0% | 48.78+0.0% | — | — |
| 大小分 | 機率 | 台灣運彩 | 熊貓 | MT | 平博 | Polymarket | 1xbet | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 大 | 小 | 大 | 小 | 大 | 小 | 大 | 小 | 大 | 小 | 大 | 小 | 大 | 小 | |
| 0.5 | 94.5% | 5.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.058-0.0% | 18.182-0.0% | 1.004-5.1% | 9.7-46.7% |
| 1.5 | 79.5% | 20.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.258+0.0% | 4.878+0.0% | 1.192-5.2% | 4.05-17.0% |
| 1.75 | 75.7% | 24.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.269-4.0% | 3.95-4.0% | — | — | — | — |
| 2 | 72.4% | 27.6% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.327-3.9% | 3.48-3.9% | — | — | 1.31-5.2% | 3.2-11.7% |
| 2.25 | 63.4% | 36.6% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.524-3.4% | 2.64-3.4% | — | — | — | — |
| 2.5 | 56.4% | 43.6% | 1.55-12.6% | 1.9-17.2% | — | — | 1.73-2.4% | 2.17-5.4% | 1.714-3.3% | 2.21-3.7% | 1.77-0.2% | 2.299+0.2% | 1.765-0.4% | 2.229-2.8% |
| 2.75 | 51.0% | 49.0% | — | — | 1.89-3.6% | 1.97-3.5% | 1.92-2.0% | 1.96-4.0% | 1.901-3.0% | 1.98-3.0% | — | — | — | — |
| 3 | 44.1% | 55.9% | — | — | — | — | 2.26-0.3% | 1.67-6.7% | 2.19-3.3% | 1.73-3.3% | — | — | 2.08-8.2% | 1.68-6.1% |
| 3.25 | 38.7% | 61.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49-3.5% | 1.575-3.5% | — | — | — | — |
| 3.5 | 34.0% | 66.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.78-5.4% | 1.469-3.1% | 2.985+1.6% | 1.504-0.8% | 2.55-13.2% | 1.44-5.0% |
| 3.75 | 28.7% | 71.3% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35-3.9% | 1.347-3.9% | — | — | — | — |
| 4.5 | 17.0% | 83.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5.882+0.0% | 1.205+0.0% | 4.4-25.2% | 1.139-5.5% |
| 5.5 | 7.0% | 93.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14.286-0.0% | 1.075-0.0% | 9.2-35.6% | 1.03-4.2% |
目前，Polymarket 的「兵工廠 -1.5」價格 3.077 相對市場共識勝率 33.2% 有 +2.1% 的正向落差，列為本場訊號。
自 Betlead 首次記錄到目前的 Pinnacle 去水機率變化（台灣時間），虛線為開賽時刻；開賽後不再更新。
讓分與大小分不能只看盤口數字，水位也會影響兩邊呈現的機率。理解 overround 與去水方式，有助於比較台灣運彩和國際盤的價格。
市場共識勝率＝平博與 Polymarket 收盤盤口去水後的平均隱含機率（市場價格轉換，非 AI 模型）。 本頁隨盤口更新，完賽後定稿並回填賽果。模型版本：consensus-v1。 台灣運動彩券為依法發行之合法彩券；境外盤口僅作市場資料比較。所有內容僅供賽事研究與市場理解參考，不構成投注建議。未滿 18 歲不得投注，理性判斷、量力而為。