MLB｜2026-09-05（台灣時間）｜資料僅供賽事研究參考，非投注建議
| 獨贏 | 機率 | 台灣運彩 | 熊貓 | MT | 平博 | Polymarket | 1xbet | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 守護者 | 老虎 | 守護者 | 老虎 | 守護者 | 老虎 | 守護者 | 老虎 | 守護者 | 老虎 | 守護者 | 老虎 | 守護者 | 老虎 | |
| 勝負 | 55.3% | 44.7% | 1.52-16.0% | 1.98-11.4% | 1.68-7.2% | 2.04-8.7% | 1.86+2.8% | 1.86-16.8% | 1.775-1.9% | 2.17-2.9% | 1.802-0.4% | 2.247+0.6% | 1.804-0.3% | 2.145-4.0% |
| 讓分 | 機率 | 台灣運彩 | 熊貓 | MT | 平博 | Polymarket | 1xbet | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 守護者 | 老虎 | 守護者 | 老虎 | 守護者 | 老虎 | 守護者 | 老虎 | 守護者 | 老虎 | 守護者 | 老虎 | 守護者 | 老虎 | |
| -4.5 | 13.0% | 87.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 7.692-0.0% | 1.149-0.0% | — | — |
| -3.5 | 19.5% | 80.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5.128-0.0% | 1.242-0.0% | — | — |
| -3 | 22.6% | 77.4% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4.2-5.2% | 1.224-5.2% | — | — | 3.8-14.2% | 1.23-4.8% |
| -2.5 | 28.1% | 71.9% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39-4.7% | 1.332-4.2% | 3.571+0.4% | 1.389-0.1% | 3.14-11.7% | 1.33-4.4% |
| -2 | 30.9% | 69.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12-3.7% | 1.392-3.7% | — | — | 2.94-9.3% | 1.38-4.6% |
| -1.5 | 38.0% | 62.0% | 2.07-21.4% | 1.46-9.4% | 2.36-10.4% | 1.45-10.0% | 2.42-8.1% | 1.5-6.9% | 2.59-1.7% | 1.549-3.9% | 2.597-1.4% | 1.626+0.9% | 2.615-0.7% | 1.567-2.8% |
| -1 | 45.4% | 54.6% | — | — | — | — | 2.04-7.4% | 1.72-6.0% | 2.13-3.4% | 1.769-3.4% | — | — | 2.09-5.2% | 1.71-6.6% |
| +1 | 62.2% | 37.8% | — | — | — | — | 1.5-6.7% | 2.42-8.5% | 1.543-4.0% | 2.54-4.0% | — | — | 1.55-3.6% | 2.36-10.8% |
| +1.5 | 66.6% | 33.4% | — | — | — | — | 1.4-6.8% | 2.69-10.1% | 1.439-4.2% | 2.83-5.4% | 1.496-0.4% | 3.017+0.9% | 1.444-3.9% | 2.61-12.8% |
| +2.5 | 75.5% | 24.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.325+0.0% | 4.082+0.0% | — | — |
| +3.5 | 82.0% | 18.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.22+0.0% | 5.556+0.0% | — | — |
| 大小分 | 機率 | 台灣運彩 | 熊貓 | MT | 平博 | Polymarket | 1xbet | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 大 | 小 | 大 | 小 | 大 | 小 | 大 | 小 | 大 | 小 | 大 | 小 | 大 | 小 | |
| 4.5 | 86.1% | 13.9% | — | — | — | — | 2.05 | 1.69-76.6% | — | — | 1.161+0.0% | 7.22+0.0% | — | — |
| 5.5 | 73.5% | 26.5% | — | — | — | — | 2.75 | 1.4-62.9% | — | — | 1.361+0.0% | 3.774+0.0% | — | — |
| 6.5 | 67.0% | 33.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.493+0.0% | 3.03+0.0% | — | — |
| 7 | 62.9% | 37.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1.521-4.3% | 2.58-4.3% | — | — | 1.48-6.9% | 2.5-7.3% |
| 7.5 | 56.2% | 43.8% | 1.68-5.6% | 1.82-20.2% | — | — | 1.7-4.5% | 2.09-8.4% | 1.725-3.1% | 2.18-4.4% | 1.77-0.6% | 2.299+0.8% | 1.67-6.2% | 2.12-7.1% |
| 8 | 52.3% | 47.7% | — | — | — | — | 1.81-5.3% | 1.97-6.1% | 1.84-3.7% | 2.02-3.7% | — | — | 1.79-6.3% | 1.98-5.6% |
| 8.5 | 48.1% | 51.9% | — | — | 1.91-8.1% | 1.81-6.1% | 1.93-7.2% | 1.85-4.0% | 2.01-3.3% | 1.87-2.9% | 2.083+0.2% | 1.923-0.2% | 2.013-3.2% | 1.909-0.9% |
| 9 | 42.3% | 57.7% | — | — | — | — | 2.19-7.3% | 1.63-6.0% | 2.27-3.9% | 1.667-3.9% | — | — | 2.18-7.7% | 1.65-4.9% |
| 9.5 | 37.8% | 62.2% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.52-4.7% | 1.552-3.5% | 2.667+0.8% | 1.6-0.5% | 2.4-9.3% | 1.53-4.8% |
| 10 | 33.9% | 66.1% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81-4.6% | 1.444-4.6% | — | — | 2.69-8.7% | 1.42-6.2% |
| 10.5 | 29.5% | 70.5% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39-0.0% | 1.418-0.0% | — | — |
目前，MT 的「守護者 勝」價格 1.86 相對市場共識勝率 55.3% 有 +2.8% 的正向落差，列為本場訊號。
獨贏價差反映目前賠率與市場共識勝率之間的落差。可先看機率如何換算，再了解共識的形成與 EV 的計算方式。
市場共識勝率＝平博與 Polymarket 收盤盤口去水後的平均隱含機率（市場價格轉換，非 AI 模型）。 本頁隨盤口更新，完賽後定稿並回填賽果。模型版本：consensus-v1。 台灣運動彩券為依法發行之合法彩券；境外盤口僅作市場資料比較。所有內容僅供賽事研究與市場理解參考，不構成投注建議。未滿 18 歲不得投注，理性判斷、量力而為。